Now with six back-to-back OCR cuts under our belts since August 2024, interest rates have been tracking steadily downwards over the last few months.
While that's been good news for borrowers—offering some much-needed relief for the many Kiwi homeowners pushed to their financial limit by high mortgage costs—the truth is, there’s no quick fix for the damage done in recent years.
Moving forward, the RBNZ has estimated that a ‘neutral’ OCR (one that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy) sits at around 3%, meaning interest rates should settle somewhere between 4.50% and 5.00%.
That’s roughly where they are now.
But with the economy still undeniably weak, and overseas volatility (specifically out of the US) potentially set to tip the global economy into a period of low growth, is there a case for the OCR to go even lower? Only time will tell.
With that in mind, here are the key OCR dates to watch for over the remainder of 2025*:
- 9th July - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 20th August - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 8th October - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 26th November - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.
Need help making sense of interest rates?
We have a team of mortgage and property experts ready to help. Give us a call on 0800 21 22 30 or flick us a message here.
*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.